Gambler’s Fallacy

As a player when we are trying to grasp the concepts of casino strategy tactics such as card counting and betting systems like Martingale, it is very important to understand and be aware of what is know as the Gambler’s Fallacy.  The Gambler’s Fallacy is an assumption made by casino players that if one event has not occurred for a long period of time it becomes more likely to occur in the short term.  A perfect example of this would be when you hear someone saying that a slot machine is “due to pay out” or that because a jackpot on a Caribbean Stud table is so large it must be won soon.  This article explains the affects of the Gambler’s Fallacy on casino players and discusses how it can negatively impact their casino strategy and betting if used to make decisions while playing.

It’s a common belief amongst many uneducated casino players that there are superstitions and signs that a slot machine is going to pay or a table jackpot is due to hit.  The simple truth of the matter is that this is a prime example of the Gambler’s Fallacy at work and all of these types of beliefs are untrue.  The reason they are untrue is that casino games are designed to be completely randomized and each outcome is entirely independent from the next.  The reason games are designed this way is to both ensure a fair game for players and protect the casinos assets from players.  Let’s take a look at a quick example below to give you an idea of how these myths can effect play.

Say that you were playing on a slot machine and you had dumped $500 into the machine and hadn’t really hit any good payout combinations.  You are thinking of leaving the casino but say to yourself “it must pay out soon I’ve put so much money in” and decide to play another $100.  After losing your next $100 your beginning to wonder if the machine is rigged, surely it should have paid out by now?  This is yet another example of how the Gambler’s Fallacy can trick players into making more bets when in fact the reality paints an entirely different picture.

In this example the myth from the player stems from a slot machine, which are one of the most popular types of games in a casino and also the most susceptible to giving players a false sense of hope.  What you should know about slot machines is that they run on computer chips which use random number generators to determine the outcome of each spin.  What this means is that every single spin of the machine is random are you are just as likely to hit 2 jackpots in a row as you are to have 500 losing spins.  Casinos are well aware of this fact and prefer that players are not too educated about it since it can obviously prove to be a very profitable myth for the house.

Although slots provide the best example of the Gambler’s Fallacy at work, it exists in every game you will find in a casino.  Roulette for example is another game where players often fall victim to the myth of one colour coming up 10 times in a row or a certain number hitting 5 consecutive times.  As with slot machines, Roulette is also a completely random game and all bets are just as likely to be hit in one round as the next.  While this concept may be hard to understand at first, if you take a look at how the House Edge in casinos work and how they make their profit, you will begin to see that a casino is in fact a carefully crafted and calculated set of games designed to get your money.

Overall, casino gambling is very entertaining and does provide large winnings to some “lucky” players.  Just remember that the next time you choose to buy into one of the popular casino myths floating around out there, you should never let the Gambler’s Fallacy determine how, how much or when you are going to bet.  Being a smart casino player means understanding the odds for each game you play and realizing that in the end they are always in favour of the house.

If you enjoyed this article you may also be interested in reading our articles on Casino Comps or How To Count Cards in Blackjack.  While accumulating and using comps can be great for getting back some of your lost wagers, card counting is an advanced strategy tactic that can actually make the Gambler’s Fallacy come true.